Abstract
Landslides are the most common and devastating natural disaster in the Indian Himalayan region other than earthquakes. Landslides affect 15% of Indias land area which is around 0.49 million km2. It is estimated that 42% of all the landslide prone areas in the country fall in North East Himalayas, especially Darjeeling and Sikkim part of the Himalayas. The damage caused due to landslides is massive leading
to loss of life, property including agricultural land. The studies on landslides have drawn worldwide attention due to the rapid increase in urbanization in many of these hilly regions and thus its increasing
impact on socio-economic aspects. Thus there is a dire need for understanding landslides, estimating its occurrence potential (or modeling), and formulating strategies to minimize its impact. Some of the recent studies on Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalayas have largely looked at severity zonation, identifying rainfall thresholds and other related aspects. However, a comprehensive study of the entire region of
Kalimpong has been largely left unattended. While, landslides can be considered to be either shallow or deep-seated failure of the soil mass,
majority of the landslides in Kalimpong are categorized as shallow landslides. Such type of landslides are caused or reactivated or induced primarily by rainfall. In a recent report by Geological Survey of
India (GSI, 2016) it identified that 75% of the landslide occurrences in this region during 2006-2013 was triggered by rainfall. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the relationship between landslide incidences and rainfall conditions during and before, primarily in the context of the Himalayan region in Kalimpong.
There are mainly two types of methods to understand this relationship: physical and empirical. Phys-ical process models are based on numerical models which study the relationship between rainfall, pore
water pressure, soil type, and volumetric water content that can lead to slope instability. Such study is usually site specific due to variation in soil properties. It is a challenge to extend this approach to large areas, as the extensive data that is required are usually not available. On the other hand, Empirical methods study the landslides that are caused by rainfall events both the heavy downpour that triggers instantaneous landslides and the low but continuous antecedent rain that destabilizes the slope and triggers landslide. In this present work, an empirical approach is taken for assessing the landslides in the Kalimpong region by considering the daily rainfall intensities. As such methods produce only binary results i.e, either landslides occur or do not occur, we have also adopted and evaluated probabilistic methods for this region. In addition, the study further explores the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences, by using a mathematical model to simulate the potential triggering conditions in Chibo, one of the most active landslide regions in Kalimpong. To validate and assess the empirical model, an IoT sensor based field observations were carried out. The installed sensors are Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensors in the Chibo area. While the former measures the tilting angle of the instrument at shallow depths and hence the lateral displacement at the slope surface; the later measures the soil moisture levels. These were used to assess the model performance. Also, it was found that antecedent rainfall of 20 days or more is one of the major causes for rainfall induced landslides in this region. The results also signify that a rainfall intensity of 60-70 mm/day has the highest probability of landslide occurrence for the Kalimpong region. The results signify that to develop an operational early warning system without the need of a monitoring system threshold values would be equal to higher than empirical derived thresholds but not higher than hydrological thresholds. The work shows that Early warning systems can hence be designed based on these rainfall thresholds as the first line of action.