Abstract
General Circulation Models (GCMs) aid in developing climate-resilient policies, preparing
for extreme events and implementing governance and disaster management mitigation strategies. Thus, assessing GCMs’ climate forecasting capabilities is crucial to establishing the
credibility and reliability of climate projections, facilitating well-informed decision-making
and climate change readiness. The UK Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3
(HadCM3), is extensively evaluated in this study. HadCM3 is used to simulate global and regional climate patterns and has been crucial to climate change assessments. This thesis explores
the spatio-temporal dynamics of temperature in contiguous Peninsular India by identifying regions of high & low variability, with an emphasis on Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW).
The central objective of this study is to improve our understanding of the attributes, patterns, trends, and fundamental factors that affect temperature variations across diverse spatial
and temporal dimensions and the HadCM3 model’s ability to accurately represent this phenomenon. Through a 30-year analysis of observed and modelled minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) data (1991-2020 and 1990-2019, respectively) over the study region,
this study explores the relationship between elevation and warming trends.
The observed and modelled Tmin and Tmax have been increasing at a rate of +0.13°C/decade
and +0.17°C/decade for observed data & +0.43°C/decade and +0.45°C/decade for modelled
data, whereas the observed and modelled diurnal temperature range (DTR) increased at +0.03°C
/decade & +0.02°C/decade. The lapse rates of observed and modelled minimum and maximum temperatures are found to be positive, but the DTR lapse rate is found to be negative,
indicating increasing DTR with elevation. Modelled data shows more pronounced trends
(+6.344°C/km for Tmin, +5.954°C/km for Tmax, and -0.39°C/km for DTR) than observed
temperature (+2.376°C/km for Tmin, +2.341°C/km for Tmax, and -0.193°C/km for DTR). This
discrepancy suggests that the global average lapse rate (+6.5°C/km) underlines the modelled
data, resulting in much higher lapse rates in the study region, which implies that the model uses a uniform lapse rate to model temperature and fails to account for the study region’s unique
topographic temperature relationships.
The study proposes the P-MiSTIC method, a multivariate extension of MiSTIC, to identify
zones with spatio-temporal consistency and investigate these inconsistencies. This study uses
Tmin and Tmax as P-MiSTIC inputs with weights of -1 and 1. Using MiSTIC, the study
finds 12, 9, 8, and 4 spatio-temporally invariant zones for observed and modelled Tmin and
Tmax, respectively. Importantly, the elevation-based change rates of variables for these zones
(-2.57°C/km and -2.19°C/km for observed Tmin and Tmax, and -7.48°C/km and -6.67°C/km
for modelled Tmin and Tmax) closely match the data-derived lapse rates. Using the P-MiSTIC
method, 11 and 1 zones are identified for observed and modelled data, respectively, indicating
that modelled data is consistent over the Peninsular region. DTR change rates for zones within
observed temperature data increase with elevation, indicating elevation-dependent warming
in specific study regions. In particular, the Western Himalayan region and the Karakoram
region, with the highest elevations, drive the phenomenon in the study region with the Western
Himalayan and Karakoram DTRs increasing at 0.19°C/decade and +0.28°C/decade over the
study period. The GCM model’s DTR data shows a much slower increase of +0.02°C/decade
in the study region.
Using the P-MiSTIC method on three decade-wise subsets, only one zone is identified
in modelled data across all decades, while observed data identifies 12, 11, and 9 zones for
decades 1, 2, and 3. The elevation-based DTR change rates for the observed temperature
zones are estimated at -0.03°C/km, -0.028°C/km, and +0.533°C/km for decades 1, 2, and
3. DTR trends change from decreasing to increasing as the study progresses from decades
1 and 2 to decade 3, suggesting elevation-dependent warming in the study region is accelerating. The Western Himalayas and the Karakoram experience considerable variations of
DTR. In the Western Himalayas, the DTR decreases at -0.14°C/decade, -0.29°C/decade, and -
0.41°C/decade for decades 1, 2, and 3, while in the Karakoram, it increases at +0.11°C/decade,
+0.13°C/decade, and +2.46°C/decade. However, the model’s DTR data shows a uniform increase of +0.02°C/decade across all decades, indicating the model’s uniform rate.
By dividing the datasets into DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, the study examined seasonal spatio-temporal variations. Seasonal observations identified 11, 10, 7, and 8 zones where
the diurnal temperature range (DTR) changed with elevation at -0.518°C/km, -0.089°C/km,
0.668°C/km, and 0.453°C/km for the four seasons. Western Himalayan and Karakor