Abstract
Landscapes are the composition of dynamic components of complex ecological, economic, and
cultural elements on which human and other life forms depend directly. Landscape dynamics
driven by land use land cover (LULC) changes due to anthropogenic activities are affecting
ecology, biodiversity, hydrological regime, and hence people’s livelihood. There has been
increasing apprehensions about environmental degradation, depletion of natural resources due
to uncontrolled anthropogenic activities, and its consequences on long-term sustainability of
socio-economic systems around the world. This necessitates an understanding of landscape
dynamics and the visualization of likely changes for evolving appropriate strategies for prudent
management of natural resources. Modeling of forest cover changes offers to incorporate
human decision making on land use in a systematic and spatially explicit way through an
accumulation of land use choices, social interaction, and adaptation at various levels. Several
models developed by the research community so far has largely been utilized to evaluate the
empirical studies, explore theoretical aspects of particular systems rather than forecasting their
effectiveness across the various landscapes representing bio-physical dissimilarities. Hence,
there is a need to demonstrate an appropriate modeling technique, that captures the current
degradation in an effective way as compared with the traditional agent-based or non-agent
based land use change modeling techniques.
In this regard, the objectives of current research are to understand and model the spatiotemporal
patterns of landscape dynamics in the Uttara Kannada district of Central Western Ghats. This
involves, (i) developing an appropriate modeling framework incorporating the spatiotemporal
changes in the landscape at the regional level; (ii) implementing a hybrid model to capture the
changes at the landscape level by integrating bio-ecological aspects with socio-economic
growth; (iii) evaluating the environmental conditions in response to scenarios of drivers of
change like developmental policies and their potential impacts; (iv) assessing the likely
scenario of the landscape dynamics based on conservation policies of ecologically sensitive
regions (ESR) and other recommendations.
The vegetation dynamics quantified using spatial data acquired through spaceborne sensors
along with collateral data shows a decline in vegetation cover from 92.87% (1973) to 80.42% (2016). Land use analyses through supervised classifiers based on the Gaussian maximum
likelihood algorithm reveals a deforestation trend as evident from the decline of evergreensemi evergreen forest cover to 29.5% (2016) from 67.73% (1973). In addition, agricultural
spatial extent (7.00 to 14.3 %) and the area under human habitations (0.38% to 4.97%) have
also shown a steep increase. This has also led to forest fragmentation (interior forest cover lost
by 64.42 to 22.25 %) in the district. In order to visualize the likely changes, the current work
proposes a modified Hybrid Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchical Process-Markov Cellular Automata
model by accounting for the land use changes and to evaluate the role of policy decisions. The
impacts are noticed at the microscale (landscape level) with policies that are framed at a macro
level and how they propagate under various scenarios.
To understand the landscape dynamics in the region, modeling has been carried out under four
scenarios to account for potential changes driven by economic growth and climatic aspects at
a landscape level. Modeling and visualization further confirm the loss of forest cover in near
future with an increase in monoculture plantations from 14.8 to 17.97% and an increase in
built-up area from 4.81 to 9.30 % by 2022 under business as usual (BAU) scenario. The
proposed hybrid modeling approach with the constraints in the cellular automata technique has
been used to simulate various scenarios (i) managed growth rate (2022), (ii) IPCC climate
change rapid growth (2031, 2046), (iii) policy-induced constrained Ecological Sensitive
Regions. The rapid growth rate scenario highlights a likely loss of forest cover by 11.1%, with
an increase in plantations covering 20.9% and built-up as 10.2% of the region by 2046. Land
use changes assessed through considering constraints of Ecological Sensitive Regions (ESR1) and the protection of intact or contiguous (interior) forest patches, highlights the role of
policy decisions in land use changes. ESR-1 protection scenario shows forest cover is likely to
remain at 48% (2021) and 45% (2031) though there is an increase in built-up area from 5.8 to
7% (2031) and agriculture area. The comparison of policy scenario-1 (ESR-1) and scenario-2
(protection of interior forest) depicts scenario-1 focuses more on conservation and limits the
growth to the ESR- 2, 3 and 4 regions, whereas scenario-2 shows growth can occur throughout
the