Abstract

Droughts are recognized as a natural disaster that is caused by extreme and continuous shortage of precipitation. Drought indices assist in a number of tasks, including its early warning and monitoring by computing severity levels and proclaiming the start and end of drought. Various drought indices were formulated for the forecasting and prediction of spatiotemporal drought characteristics using various hydrological variables, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture content, etc. Due to anthropogenic global warming and increase of temperature, evapotranspiration based drought indices have become interest in recent years in the drought assessment. This paper attempt to provide more information on drought indices which incorporates Evapotranspiration. The study used Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index (SPEI), based on evapotranspiration to understand the drought variability at various time scales. This study adopted Hargreaves model to calculate Potential Evapotranspiration. SPEI index can also be used to study the wet and dry periods including Evapotranspiration along with precipitation. The study used SPEI to understand the dry and wet years over an urban semi-arid region, Hyderabad, capital and biggest city of the southern Indian state of Telangana for the year 1965 to 2015. The years 1965, 1966, 1972, 1973, 1985, 1993 and 2012 were noted as dry years with SPEI values as -1.35,-1.06,-1.43,-1.31,-1.05, -1.22 and -1.51 sequentially and year 2006 as severe wet year with SPEI value as +1.65. The characterization of dry and wet years as demonstrated in the present study will enhance the better urban water resources management.

Abstract

Surface Temperature (ST) is important in terms of surface energy and terrestrial water balances affecting urban ecosystems. In this study, to process the nonlinear changes of climatological variables by leveraging the distinct advantages of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), we propose an LSTM-BiLSTM hybrid deep learning model which extracts multi-dimension features of inputs, i.e., backward (future to past) or forward (past to future) to predict ST. This study assessed the climatological variables, i.e., wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, dew point temperature, and atmospheric pressure impact on ST using five major coastal cities of India: Chennai, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Cuddalore, and Cochin. The Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and hybrid LSTM-BiLSTM models have effectively predicted ST and outperformed the standalone Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), LSTM, and BiLSTM models. The RNN and LSTM-BiLSTM models have performed better in predicting ST for Mangalore (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)¼0.91), followed by Cochin (NSE¼0.89), Chennai (NSE¼0.88), Cuddalore (NSE¼0.88), and Vishakhapatnam (NSE¼0.81). The hybrid data-driven modeling framework indicated that coupling the LSTM and BiLSTM models were proven effective in predicting the ST of coastal cities

Abstract

Reservoirs are essential infrastructures in human life. It provides water supply, flood control, hydroelectric power supply, navigations, irrigation, recreation, and other functionalities. To provide these services and resources from the reservoir, it’s necessary to know the reservoir system's inflow. The Machine Learning (ML) techniques are widely acknowledged to forecast the inflow into the reservoir system. In this paper, the popular ML technique, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), is used to predict the reservoir system's inflow. This technique has been applied to the Bhadra reservoir of India at a daily time scale. In this study, the effect and complex relationship of climate phenomenon indices with inflow has been considered. The considered climate phenomenon indices are (1) Arctic Oscillation (AO), (2) East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation (EPO), (3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (4) Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific SST (NINO1+2), (5) Eastern Tropical Pacific SST (NINO3), (6) Central Tropical Pacific SST (NINO4), (7) East Central Tropical pacific SST (NINO34), (8) Pacific North American Index (PNA), (9) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (10) Western Pacific Index (WP), (11) Seasonality. In this paper, different parameter settings have been discussed on the models’ performances. The analysis of the GBR method for the Bhadra reservoir includes the number of estimators, maximum depth. The results indicate that the GBR model can capture the inflow's peaks and droughts into the reservoir systems. The study demonstrates how ML methods can be used to generate accurate reservoir inflow predictions.

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly adopted due to its ability to model complex and nonlinearities between river water temperature (RWT) and its predictors (e.g., Air Temperature, AT). Most of these ML approaches have been applied using average AT without any detailed sensitivity analysis of other forms of AT (e.g., maximum and minimum). The present study demonstrates how new ML approaches, such as ridge regression (RR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN) regressor, random forest (RF) regressor, and support vector regression (SVR), can be coupled with Sobol’ global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to predict accurate RWT estimates with the most appropriate form of AT. Furthermore, the proposed ML approaches have been combined with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a data assimilation (DA) technique to improve the predicted values based on the measured data. The proposed modelling framework’s effectiveness is demonstrated with a tropical river system of India, Tunga-Bhadra River, as a case study. The SVR has been noted as the most robust ML model to predict RWT at a monthly time scale compared with daily and seasonal. The study demonstrates how ML methods can be coupled with a global sensitivity algorithm and DA techniques to generate accurate RWT predictions in river water quality modelling.

Abstract

: Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is a complex hydrological variable defined by various climatic variables affecting water and energy balances and critical factors for crop water requirements and irrigation scheduling. Conventionally ET0 is calculated by various empirical methods based on rigorous climatic data. However, there are many places where various climatic data may not available for ET0 estimation. The objective of this study is to evaluate different machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate ET0 with minimal climatic inputs. In this study, FAO56 Penman-Monteith model was considered as the standard model and different ML models based on A Long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were developed to estimate ET0 with climatic variables as input parameters. These models were evaluated in two different climatic regions, Hyderabad in India and Waipara in New Zealand. The results indicated that 99 % accuracy could be achieved with all climatic input, whereas accuracy drops to 86% with fewer data. LSTM model performed better than other ML models with all input combinations at both the stations, followed by SVR and RF. Both LSTM and SVR models have been noted as the most robust ML models for estimating ET0 with minimal climate data. Even though the excellent performance can be achievable when all input variables are used, the study, however, found that even a three-parameter combination (Temperature, Wind Speed and Relative Humidity values) or two-parameter combination (Temperature and Relative Humidity, Temperature and Wind Speed) can also be promising in ET0 estimation. The presented study will help to estimate ET0 for data scare regions, which is vital for agricultural water management in semi-arid climates.

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly adopted due to its ability to model complex and non-linearities between river water temperature (RWT) and its predictors (e.g., Air Temperature, AT). Most of these ML approaches have been applied using average AT without any detailed sensitivity analysis of other forms of AT (e.g., maximum and minimum). The present study demonstrates how new ML approaches, such as ridge regression (RR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN) regressor, random forest (RF) regressor, and support vector regression (SVR), can be coupled with Sobol’ global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to predict accurate RWT estimates with the most appropriate form of AT. Furthermore, the proposed ML approaches have been combined with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a data assimilation (DA) technique to improve the predicted values based on the measured data. The proposed modelling …

Abstract

Understanding the relevance of potential (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) in the drought characterization over energy and water-limited regions is unexplored. The present study tries to restructure the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with AET to represent the anomalies of actual water availability in addition to precipitation over India. The AET is estimated using the Budyko hypothesis at annual scale which was validated with Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) satellite-based AET data. AET-based drought index was in more agreement with remote sensing-based drought severity index (DSI) for major drought events compared to PET-based drought index for water-limited zone compared to energy-limited. For water-limited zones, the PET-based drought index has overestimated the drought intensities, while for energy-limited zones such effect is not …

Abstract

Univariate meteorological drought indices are inadequate to represent the complexity of hydrological conditions under the intensification of hydrological cycle due to climate change at catchment scale. In this study, Stand­ ardised Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index (SPAEI) was proposed, which can combine both meteo­ rological and hydrological drought characteristics at catchment scale. The proposed new drought index considers the hydrologically calibrated AET to account for the water use in addition to meteorological effect. The proposed hydrometeorological drought index was potential in identifying meteorological and hydrological drought events accounting for the time-lag effects and comparable with Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) remote sensing AET data-based drought index. The PET based drought index of SPEI, which is based on energy demand, has shown intensified drought characteristics compared to SPAEI, which is based on both energy de­ mand and available moisture supply and can be a promising variable in the drought estimation. The climate change projections of precipitation and temperatures downscaled using statistical downscaling model based on K-means clustering, Classification and Regression Trees and Support Vector Regression were used using three General Circulation Model outputs. Intensified drought characteristics under climate change has been predicted over Krishna River basin, India, in terms of increase of drought areal extent of about 25%-31%, with increase of drought frequency as 5 years per 20 years and durations as 4–5 months based on the proposed hydrometeoro­ logical drought index of SPAEI.

Abstract

The following corrections should be made to the original paper: In the “Eflow Estimation Based on Hydrological and Hydraulic Factors” subsection of the “Results and Discussion” section: • In the sentence beginning with “Hydrological Eflow recommendations for maintaining good health over the Yamuna River were estimated to lie between 986.4 and 2,959.3 m3=s,” “986.4 and 2,959.3 m3=s” should be replaced with “27.9 m3=s (986.4 ft3=s) and 83.8 m3=s (2,959.3 ft3=s).” • In the sentence published as, “The minimum Eflow to be maintained in the river during the dry season is 3,945.7 m3=s for the Yamuna and 5.8 m3=s for the Bhadra,” “3,945.7 m3=s” should be replaced with “111.7 m3=s (3,945.7 ft3=s).” In the Supplemental Data: • In Table S3, the values in the columns under “Eflow of Yamuna River (m3=s)” are updated. The published paper contained values in ft3=s, which are retained in brackets. The values of Eflow are converted to m3=s as shown in the revised Table S3. • In Table S5, the “Yamuna” column under “Recommended Eflow (m3=s)” contains values in ft3=s in the published paper. The values of flow are converted in m3=s as shown in the revised Table S5. The values in ft3=s are retained in brackets. • In Fig. S2(a), the y-axis label of “Discharge (cumecs)” should be replaced with “Discharge (cusecs).” The corrected Fig. S2 is provided in the Supplemental Data. In the subsection “Yamuna River (Delhi Segment)” under the section “Description of Study Regions,” “Uttaranchal” should become “Uttarakhand.” In Fig. 2(a), the labels for Drains 15 and 16 should be interchanged. The revised figure is provided herein.

Abstract

n this study, a 3D seismic response of soil deposit, soil-ash deposit and soil-ash-foundation system was investigated. Homogeneous sand deposit of 80m × 9m × 20m was initially analyzed. A pond ash layer is on top of the sand deposit with varying thicknesses and the efficiency of the pond ash layer on the sand deposit was evaluated for its best suitability. The optimum sand-ash deposit overlain by a shallow foundation has been analysed under the excitation of the Nepal (Mw:7.8) and North East India earthquake (Mw:7.5). A seismic response analysis was performed using finite element software PLAXIS3D. The finite element model adopted for the present study has been validated using 1D nonlinear ground response analysis programs. e.g. DEEPSOIL and Cyclic1D. Results of the response analysis have been determined in terms of acceleration, displacement, excess pore pressure, and excess pore pressure ratio. It was observed that, the sand-pond ash-foundation system experienced liquefaction when excited under the Nepal earthquake motion whereas it is safe against the North East India earthquake.