Abstract
Understanding the nexus between land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) of a rapidly growing city may help planners mitigate the effects of uncontrolled urbanization on the micro- and macro-environment. The primary focus of the study is to monitor the transient LULC of Surat, one of the rapidly growing cities in India. To comprehend the urban dynamics, the study analyses the tri-decadal LULC of Surat using temporal Landsat imagery corresponding to 1990, 2001, 2009, and 2020. Besides classification of satellite data to derive LULC using the maximum likelihood algorithm, emphasis has been given to evaluate the normalized difference vegetation index and normalized difference built-up index, which help in differentiating vegetation and built-up from other land-use types. In addition, the LST of Surat is computed, and zonal analysis is performed to examine its association with LULC. Results show that the built-up area of Surat increased by 3.22 times during the considered time, while the aerial extent of vegetation decreased by 1.58 times. Future land-use dynamics are predicted using the Markov model. Findings revealed that the built-up area is expected to increase by 20% between 2020 and 2030, while the vegetation area is likely to decrease by 13%. The developed model attained an accuracy of 52.08%, which is in agreement with the past studies. The findings of this study help urban planners and stakeholders to devise effective policies that can mitigate the